The next round of scheduled local elections takes place in less than six weeks and polling is predicting a dismal night for the Conservatives (and for Labour, for that matter). According to Pollcheck, the Tories can expect to lose 483 seats and end the night on 755 of those contested, down from 1238. ReformUK, meanwhile, look set to gain a whopping 985 to take their total to 1043 of those contested, so presumably gaining from both the Conservatives and Labour.

The same poll shows that Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Bexley councils look highly likely to follow Kent in switching from Conservative to Reform control.

This bad news should not come as a surprise, as Election Maps UK showed us recently that of 227 local by-elections held since the 2025 local elections, Reform have jumped from 12 to 78 seats of those contested in that timeframe, while the Conservatives dropped from 50 to 28. The pattern is set to continue.

I know that Conservative Party members, activists and supporters do not wish to simply walk into defeat.  Our WhatsApp groups and social media feeds are full of pictures of cheery-looking folk gathering for a group shot ahead of leafleting and canvass sessions. Significant time, energy and shoe-leather is being used out on the streets and doorsteps in the hope that voters will be persuaded at their front door that they should vote Conservative.

However, if the polls are showing us anything, it is that what we are doing is not working, and as I have said previously, the old definition of insanity as being doing the same thing on repeat, each time expecting a different outcome, shows that the Party is about to face an unwelcome but inevitable reality check. We can no longer simply rely on traditional activist-powered, old-school campaigning to shift the dial.

So, what can we do that is different? Is defeat really inevitable? Well, my theory is that, like it or not, people vote in local elections based on their perception of the national party. And I believe that the national party still has time to turn things around. All is not lost. But we must cast out the ‘same old’ and do something different, not just to shake things up but because it is the right thing for our country. So here it is: so far, the party has talked about explaining our past actions which eroded the electorate’s trust, and renewing our principles and policies. To my mind, explanation and renewal simply give the impression that we believe we were right and that we would do the same again, possibly with some tweaking and better messaging.

We must not double down on what has failed us. What we actually need to do is renounce. We need to renounce the policies we implemented that led, for example, to an overbearing tax burden, a bloated civil service, waves of blatant illegal immigration, disproportionate state dependency, a commitment to to he yoke of net-zero and a blind eye turned to the rights and safety of women and girls. 

We must then clearly declare that we will also repeal Labour’s harmful policies and be specific about which ones.

We must do this loudly, boldly and urgently. There is still time. Just. 

© Joanna Reeves 2026, all rights reserved.